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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.