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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."